LagondaNet

[Francis]

We are all aware of the situation the auto industry is in at this time.

Last night the US Senate defeted the auto bail out plan.

In all likelyhood GM and Chrysler will have to file for protection against their creditors under chapter 11.

The suppliers of those two auto manufacturers will not get payed and will also go under.

The ripple effect will be far and wide. 3 000 000 jobs are at play here in the US, Mexico and Canada alone.

Not all those jobs will be lost, not all creditors and suppliers will go under but the american auto industry needs this to happen.

As insensitive as it will sound, that is the only way that the remains of those car companies will look appealing for potential buyers.

The UAW union workers in the big 3 auto companies have an hourly cost of $75.- where as in the Toyota and Hyundai and Honda plants IN THE USA only cost $45.- an hour. The legacy cost at the big 3 are stagerring, those are the cost associated with the retiree of the big 3.

GM and Chrysler will not stop producing cars, they will be broken down into smaller parts, some will be taken over by others like Renault-Nissan, Toyota, Honda and possibly some chinese auto mfgr.

Now as hawfull as this is and as pathetic as this will sound, what effect will this have on the value of our beloved Lagondas?

Francis
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Alvira's keeper

[Lagondanet]

It won't effect their intrinsic value as for the vast majority of us that is more important than their monetary value which in most cases is relatively low anyway.

But I do feel sorry for any workers who lose their jobs & possibly pensions etc.

[Francis]

Yes thru,

But my comment about values was incompassing all the classics and exotics market place when I mentionned the Lagondas. I should have been a bit more precise.

We have cars, the Lagonda, that is part of the world of exotics but in the category of 'Exotiques mal-aimées' or the unpopular cars of the great car brand names.

The value is low, not the costs of parts, and the enthousiasm is limited to the thruly connaisseurs of the model. Us.

I still see cars here in America selling for $12 000.- a steal in my opinion.
I have invested without limits on my car and I never expect to make it back and I now am tempted to buy an other one, if I can find a descent one in that price range, Like the one for sale on e-bay right now. I think it is 13442, a red 1985 iin California, but I digress.

The point I am trying to make is that I forsee a collaps in the price of toys for grown-ups like the exotic car market if GM and Chrysler go belly-up.

At least it will agravate the down turn on the value of all cars.

Do I make any sence?

Francis
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Alvira's keeper

[Lagondanet]

Perfect sense.
Second hand cars are cheap.
Most new car sales numbers are down.
There is more on this and its possible effect on AML which you may have seen on the AMOC forum.

[Lagondanet]

Francis
I think the red car you refer to is 13401.
See sales.

[Vincent]

I don't believe in a total failure in the car industry, for many reasons such as :
The US government MUST find a solution, because the financial consequences of the fall are bigger than the cost of the subsidiary aid : VAT, fuel taxes, unemployment wich causes a decrease of incomes and less money turnover,etc...
Cars are a need...
Surely at this time, anywhere in the world are sleeping a lot of new cars, trucks, boats...but the possible buyers for these items are already born !
As truck dealer, I also suffer from unsold stock at this moment; the european car and truck market knew the greatest years of his history last 3 years : a good manner to save some money because we knew this had to stop at one time. Those who didn't saw this face now many and big problems, the others have to round the rug...
But I agree it's very painful for the workers with temporary contracts, as well in the factories as by the dealers.
Please note the decreases in Europe in the last 40 years dured 'only' about 9 months while the growth is more than 5 years long each time...

About the Lagonda : what's more important ? The value or how you feel when you drive it ? I know the answer...
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Welcome to Paradise ! (FRONT 242)
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[Mitrovic]

Difficult and sad topic.

We are heading to a global recession ( or we are allready in it ). This means many jobs will be lost, which means many lifes will get much harder. If GM and Chrysler go down, this will give us huge job losses. By the way, who can save them? No other car maker can save them in their form of today. Everybody has big financial problems. And the state? We all know that the US of A is at the verge of bankrupcy, too.
But this big number in job losses could lead us to social unrest, too, and this is alarming... So it will be a financially tough year 2009.

If you browse the ads of classic car dealers, you can notice allready now, that the prices for many classic cars are falling.
I guess the prices for Lagonda V8 cars will not fall a lot, because they are very low.

Zoran

[Mitrovic]

So they will survive. At least for 3 more months.

But may be the world should not focus to much on the USA and the "western world" when talking about the recession. Not in all countries the numbers are that bad.

Switzerland is certainly a special country, too. The car market was all year positive, but finally in november there was a decline of 16% compared to november 2007.

But if you look at the numbers: Aston Martin has a plus 23 % in november and for the whole year a plus of 7 %.
Jaguar has a plus of 65 % and a plus of 25 % for the whole year.
However Porsche has a minus 35%, Toyota minus 50%, Opel minus 40%.

The biggest winners for the whole year are BMW Alpina plus 93% ( but only 31 ) and Dacia with plus 90 %
The biggest loosers for the whole year are Alfar romeo -22% and Porsche -22%.

But remember, Switzerland is a very small market, around 280 000 cars for a year.

Zoran